MobilityMonday: 2024 Predictions Revisited
Volume 17
Each Monday, I’ll be breaking down a recent development affecting the economy of the movement of people and goods. To follow along for the journey, enter your email below to subscribe.
Grading last year’s mobility predictions for 2024
Last year — when MobilityMonday was still on LinkedIn — I laid out 10 predictions for the mobility world in 2024. I hadn’t taken a look at the predictions until this past week, so it was fun to see which ones came to fruition, and which ones fell flat.
Stay tuned next week for predictions for 2025! In the meantime, let’s see how my predictions for this past year fared:
1. Europe will ramp up protectionism from Chinese EVs to the benefit of continental OEMs
Grade: C+
Good news: the EU did in fact settle on a tariff regime to tax imported EVs from Chinese OEMs. Bad news: it was nowhere near as forceful as the Biden administration’s 100% levy, but more importantly, it has not done much to benefit continental OEMs. The share of Chinese EV brands in the European market continues to rise, and Chinese PHEV exports to Europe more than doubled YoY during the first three quarters of 2024. Continental OEMs haven’t benefitted much either, as evidenced by Volkswagen’s year of crisis.
2. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) will institute greater oversight and regulation for autonomy, but not assign blanket liability to OEMs
Grade: A-
Saved by the bell! Only 10 days ago, NHTSA released a new voluntary framework “for the evaluation and oversight of certain vehicles equipped with automated driving systems.” While this doesn’t necessarily translate into greater oversight and regulation, it definitely doesn’t assign blanket liability to OEMs, especially given the fact that it’s voluntary in nature and allows carmakers to equip vehicles with AV/ADAS technology without NHTSA approval.
3. EV repair costs will rise further as aftermarket suppliers and maintenance networks continue to adjust to electrification
Grade: C-
The figures are a bit murky, but according to at least one estimate (see below), average EV repair costs declined slightly in 2024 from the year prior. By all accounts, EV repair is still considerably more expensive when compared to ICE, though maintenance is ostensibly more infrequent.
4. America's "Hot Labor Summer" will spill into Europe
Grade: A
The 2023 UAW and UPS strikes in the US reverberated across the pond in 2024, most notably vis-a-vis Volkswagen, which, amid its cost-cutting plans across multiple factories, faced strong pushback from Germany’s powerful IG Metall union. What resulted in the fall was the largest strike in the history of the Volkswagen Group. Strikes across Germany and Belgium not only affected Volkswagen — and its subsidiaries in Porsche and Audi — but also Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
5. To win swing states during the 2024 campaign, Biden will soften his push for EVs
Grade: F
Welp. Beyond the fact that Biden wouldn’t even make it to the final months of the campaign, even until the final weeks of his campaign, the president was pushing EVs as hard as ever:
In January, the administration announced a new set of tax credits and incentives to help lower EV costs.
In March, the administration issued one of the most aggressive tailpipe emissions targets ever.
In mid-July, the Department of Energy announced $1.7B in funding for retooling domestic auto factories for EVs.
6. Municipal oversight over micromobility operators will intensify
Grade: B
In September, Madrid banned rental e-scooters, citing operators' failure to enforce proper parking controls and comply with data-sharing requirements. A month earlier, Melbourne also banned shared e-scooters. And a couple of weeks ago, London proposed new regulation to help combat shared e-bike parking violations.
New York City also introduced multiple laws to improve micromobility safety, though not necessarily directed specifically at operators themselves.
So while some cities have tightened their grip on micromobility services in their cities, it doesn’t seem like there has been much to stifle the upward trend in micromobility ridership.
7. To combat rising labor costs, Fortune 500s and SMEs alike will invest record highs into industrial automation
Grade: B+
Though actual investment dollars by established firms are a bit hard to glean, most signs point to a healthy 2024 for the industrial automation sector. For one, M&A activity in this sector grew significantly, as did estimated investment in warehouse automation. Orders for robotic systems in North America rose nearly 10% in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023. And the private markets certainly took a liking to industrial automation, as PE + VC dollars invested in this sector more than doubled 2023’s figures.
8. India's mobility exports will increasingly substitute Chinese exports in southeast Asia and emerging economies
Grade: A
According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), India’s passenger vehicle exports during the first 11 months of 2024 grew by nearly 8% and two-wheeler exports saw a nearly 22% increase. According to SIAM, two-wheeler growth was primarily driven by demand in Latin America. The country has targeted to export 50% of all vehicle production, but only about 15% of vehicles today are exported, indicating that there’s still a lot of room for growth.
9. New autonomous commercial trucking routes will open outside of Aurora's planned Dallas-Houston lane
Grade: C-
There wasn’t much action in the autonomous trucking world, and Aurora’s planned commercial launch is still only slated for April 2025. The California Department of Motor Vehicles did however issue a set of draft regulations for autonomous trucking and Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill that would have banned heavy-duty autonomous vehicles. On the passenger vehicle side, however, autonomy had a big year — from Waymo’s continued growth to Tesla’s robotaxi announcement (plus Cruise’s collapse).
10. Energy giants will invest more in hardware and raw materials than in software and services
Grade: A-
Granted, energy is naturally a hardware-intensive industry, so it’s no surprise that some of the biggest acquisitions in this market in the past year came from physical infrastructure — from solar and hydro projects to transmission lines. Most investments in 2024 made by oil and gas CVCs went to hardware and deeptech startups (see Shell, BP, Chevron, Saudi Aramco), giving credence to the adage that decarbonization is a hardware problem more so than a software problem.
👜 Grab Bag
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The biggest flops and fizzles in 2024 transportation, from Apple Car to Fisker